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Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT 22/2009Z TRMM AND 23/0117Z SSMI
OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD REMAINED INTACT.
HOWEVER...RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM SANTA ROSALITA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE BECOMING ELONGATED...AND MAY BE STARTING
TO DECOUPLE. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SURFACE
POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE
MID-LEVEL SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND
OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77/65/45 KT FROM TAFB/
SAB/AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/18. THERE WAS SOME ACCELERATION
TO 21 KT EARLIER...BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE POSITION SUGGESTS THAT
MARTY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATIONS BEING
CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT GETS PICKED
UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 800 NMI WEST OF SAN DIEGO.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AFTER MOVING
INLAND. THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND THEN CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST TRACK AFTER THAT.
 
WHILE THERE MAY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
STEADY WEAKENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE RATHER NARROW
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES CONSTRICTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MAINLAND AND BAJA MEXICO.
 
THE GFDL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT SOME OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF MARTY WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 28.0N 112.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.4N 112.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N 113.3W    45 KT...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 32.0N 113.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 33.2N 113.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 34.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC