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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS
DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KTS.  THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E.  THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS
PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...BUT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIR
THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEED THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT
THIS TIME...THE AVN AND GFDL.   
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 17.0N 106.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.4N 108.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 109.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 111.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W    70 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC