Hurricane LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003
 
INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA
HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT I HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE CENTER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND A
TAD WEST OF THE LOCATION NOTED IN A 16/0446Z SSMI OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/03. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT LINDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPS LINDA OVER 27C OR WARMER SSTS AND
UNDER DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
TAKES LINDA DOWN TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS AND HOLDS THAT
INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH IT RE-STRENGTHENS THE
CYCLONE BACK TO 44 KT BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER... I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
THE CYCLONE AT MINIMAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL
ALSO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND CLOSE TO A LARGE
FIELD OF STABLE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS LOWER INTENSITY
IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH STEADILY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 84 HOURS. ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE LINDA BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 20.6N 115.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.7N 116.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.3N 117.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 19.7N 118.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W    30 KT
 
 
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