Hurricane LINDA

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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA HAS DEVELOPED A 25-30 NMI
DIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED BANDED EYE. A 15/1733Z SSMI OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A GOOD MID-LEVEL EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. A 2-HOUR ODT AVERAGE IS T4.0...OR
65 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T4.3 AT 1800Z. THEREFORE...LINDA IS
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...MAKING IT ONLY THE THIRD HURRICANE
OF THE 2003 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF
HURRICANES BY THIS TIME OF THE SEASON IS SIX TO SEVEN. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. LINDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AS FAR WEST AS 120W LONGITUDE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY ALL
THE GLOBAL MODELS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD.
HOWEVER...LINDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATER AND
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTERWARDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UKMET...
GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
ADVISORIES.  THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...LINDA COULD STILL
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATER IN 24 HOURS
OR SO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LINDA COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN FORECAST AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
MORE SOUTHWARD AND BACK OVER WARMER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 20.1N 113.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 117.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.8N 118.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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