Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LINDA IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION... A
TIGHT CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE PICTURES WITH A CURVED
BAND FEATURE ARCING THROUGH THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. 
THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON... INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STILL INCREASING WITH 40 KT BEING CHOSEN AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TAFB...SAB AND AFWA.  

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LINDA IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE SMALL FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST... ALSO
FAVORING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THIS
STORM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS.. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES THE SAME.  AFTER 36 HOURS... A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR
AND COOLER WATER BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY AT
FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OVER SSTS NEAR
23-24C.

LINDA IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MORNING ADVISORY...315/09 KT. 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS... CONTINUING UPON A PATH BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT.  A TURN TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS.  THIS TURN
IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE UKMET WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE NEAR
120W.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE RIDGE
INTACT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THOUGHT.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MIDDLE TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY ABOUT MID-WEEK.  
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.4N 110.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.2N 111.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.3N 117.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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