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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  
CONVECTION STILL PERSISTS HOWEVER IT IS NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS YIELDED T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB AND T2.0 FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6...A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH WILL STEER THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN...
FOLLOWS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
AFTER 48 HOURS IN A SECOND CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.    

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS.  OUR INTENSITY
REFLECTS THIS TREND AND WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW IN
FIVE DAYS.  GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LARGE
CIRCULATION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 19.4N 112.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.9N 113.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 114.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 118.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 122.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC