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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
AT 12Z...SOCORRO REPORTED A SOUTH WIND WITH A 1001.6 MB
PRESSURE...AFTER REPORTING A NORTH WIND LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
SOCORRO. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWED A DECENT...IF BROAD
CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T1.0...AT BEST.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE POSITION OF THE CENTER AT
THIS TIME...AND THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AFTER MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES
AVAILABLE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE
295/8.  CURRENTLY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS...WHICH SEEMED
TO INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK.

THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. 
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE LARGE...SPRAWLING
NATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 19.2N 111.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N 113.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 125.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N 128.5W    25 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC