Tropical Storm JIMENA

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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE FORMATION OF A RAGGED CDO AND
OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF EYE-LIKE HOLES IN VISIBLE AND AMSU IMAGERY. 
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST...AND THE
SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS IT LOOKS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED
ON ALL THE ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
JIMENA WITH 35 KT WINDS. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
285/12...AND IT MAY BE EVEN MORE WESTWARD.  JIMENA IS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE STORM SHOULD THUS MOVE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING HOW FAR NORTH. 
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A
WESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN 14N-16.5N...WHILE THE BAM MODELS...CLIPER...
AND NHC 91 FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IF THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS
CORRECT...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWEST IN
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
 
JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C...AND SHOULD STAY OVER THIS TEMPERATURE
FOR 12-24 HR.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER 26C
WATER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORBALE BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS...SO THE SSTS SHOULD CONTROL THE INTENSITY.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE AS THE CYCLONE
REACHES THE MARGINAL SSTS.  A TRACK NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A WEAKER CYCLONE...WHILE A TRACK SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST COULD ALLOW JIMENA TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. 

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 14.6N 132.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.1N 134.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.7N 136.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.2N 138.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 141.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 17.5N 146.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 152.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 17.5N 158.0W    65 KT
 
 
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