Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003
 
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NOW SEVERELY RESTRICTED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT
BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM TAFB. OTHER
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD
HIGHER BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INNER-CORE
WIND FIELD NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 265/12. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN THROUGH THE
THINNING CIRRUS CANOPY. THIS POSITION WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO ON TRACK
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS MODEL...AND IS A CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF TD-8E HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS TOLL
ON GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...TD-8E HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
...SO THE OUTFLOW FROM THAT SYSTEM MAY ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO AND ALLOW FOR MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP.
THIS IS THE REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ONLY LOWERED
SLIGHTLY. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST GUILLERMO TO BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 84-96 HOURS...BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY UNLESS
THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW SHEAR FROM TD-8E LETS UP COMPLETELY. GUILLERMO
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE 28C SST ISOTHERM...SO THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME PERIODIC STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
AND KEEP THE CYCLONE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 15.4N 124.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.3N 125.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N 130.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 141.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    35 KT
 
 
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