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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A
DAY OR TWO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS HEAVILY BIASED TO
THE GFS AND THE GFDL. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 17.0N 117.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 121.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC