Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
ENRIQUE MAINTAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH CLOUD TOPS
TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...A TRMM OVERPASS AND 0802Z
SHOWED NO EYE AND A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE BANDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
ENRIQUE SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE HINTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW MAY BE
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.

ENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/13...CONTINUING THE NORTHWESTWARD JOG. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N124W.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
SHORT-TERM CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER AND LOWER-LEVEL
STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BY
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...BUT WHAT GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

ENRIQUE IS NOW NEAR THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...WHICH
MEANS TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION HAS JUST ABOUT RUN OUT.  THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE STORM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE DOWN FROM
HERE ON.  ENRIQUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 17.4N 114.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 116.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N 118.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.8N 121.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 123.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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