Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12/00Z WERE 55 KT FROM
TAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...DATA T-NUMBERS
WERE T3.5...OR 55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 55 KT. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE
BECOME MORE CIRCULAR WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. ENRIQUE HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
SHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...BUT THIS MOTION
HAS BEEN SMOOTHED OUT SINCE IT IS BELIEVED TO BE MAINLY DUE TO
REORGANIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF ENRIQUE IN
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ALLEGED FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST IS ALSO SEEN MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF ENRIQUE. HAVING
SAID THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF ALL THE
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER. ENRIQUE IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME A
VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE
WESTWARD BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

THE BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY
REQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
ACCORDINGLY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE UNRESTRICTED IN
ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH ALSO FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...WHILE ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ENRIQUE UP TO
64...67...AND 65 KT IN 12...24...AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
AFTER 12 HOURS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 15.4N 112.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.9N 113.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.6N 116.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.3N 118.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 125.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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