ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003 ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12/00Z WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...DATA T-NUMBERS WERE T3.5...OR 55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE BECOME MORE CIRCULAR WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. ENRIQUE HAS ACTUALLY MADE A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...BUT THIS MOTION HAS BEEN SMOOTHED OUT SINCE IT IS BELIEVED TO BE MAINLY DUE TO REORGANIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF ENRIQUE IN ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ALLEGED FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO SEEN MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF ENRIQUE. HAVING SAID THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF ALL THE THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER. ENRIQUE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY REQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH ALSO FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...WHILE ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ENRIQUE UP TO 64...67...AND 65 KT IN 12...24...AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER 12 HOURS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER WATER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 15.4N 112.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.9N 113.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.6N 116.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.3N 118.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.4N 125.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC