Tropical Storm DOLORES
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND DOLORES IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A BURST OR TWO OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9. DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THAT FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 16.7N 119.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 17.3N 121.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 08/1800Z 18.9N 125.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 09/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN