Tropical Storm CARLOS

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE
EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER ADVIORIES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TIME SO THAT IT CAN BE DETERMINED
FOR SURE THAT CARLOS HAS TOTALLY DISSIPATED.
 
THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR APPEARANCE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT MUCH OF WHATEVER
CIRCULATION EXISTS IS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  ALL WARNINGS FOR
MEXICO ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE REINTENSIFICATION WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER.  A 48 HOUR TRACK FORECAST IS MADE
EVEN THOUGH IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT
LONG.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 16.7N  98.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  99.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N 103.5W    15 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
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