ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER ADVIORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TIME SO THAT IT CAN BE DETERMINED FOR SURE THAT CARLOS HAS TOTALLY DISSIPATED. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT MUCH OF WHATEVER CIRCULATION EXISTS IS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALL WARNINGS FOR MEXICO ARE DISCONTINUED. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE REINTENSIFICATION WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER. A 48 HOUR TRACK FORECAST IS MADE EVEN THOUGH IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT LONG. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 99.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 103.5W 15 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 GMT