Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CARLOS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE STRENGTHENING EPISODE NOTED
EARLIER HAS ENDED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH LAND.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T3.0...45
KT.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
LESSENED AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  OBVIOUSLY THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF CARLOS IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  IF
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...THE STORM COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...OR EVEN
INTENSIFY.  AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
 
THE NORTHWARD MOTION WAS UNEXPECTED. IT HAD BEEN PRESUMED THAT THE
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WOULD
FORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE STEERING OF CARLOS
APPARENTLY HAS BEEN INFLUENCED MORE BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITHIN WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EMBEDDED. 
THIS TROUGH COULD CARRY CARLOS INLAND VERY SOON. HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL SOON BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE.  THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPORTS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN NEPP AND THE RADAR AT PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL FOR THE TRACKING OF CARLOS OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 15.7N  97.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N  98.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N  99.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 100.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.4N 101.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 108.5W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC