Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR...IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. 
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS THE
GFDL THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS IN 30 ABOUT HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SOON
THE CYCLONE WILL BE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING.  THIS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 

ON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO. 

BY DAYS 4 AND 5..THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 14.6N  98.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N  99.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 100.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N 101.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 103.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W    30 KT
 
 
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