Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression THREE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR...IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. 
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS THE
GFDL THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS IN 30 ABOUT HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SOON
THE CYCLONE WILL BE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING.  THIS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 

ON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE AND
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE
RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO. 

BY DAYS 4 AND 5..THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 14.6N  98.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N  99.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 100.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N 101.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 103.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W    30 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC