ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR...IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFDL THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS IN 30 ABOUT HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SOON THE CYCLONE WILL BE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING. THIS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO. BY DAYS 4 AND 5..THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.6N 98.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 99.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 100.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.6N 101.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 103.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC