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Tropical Storm BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003
 
BLANCA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A RECENT SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE SWIRL
INDICATIVE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS AFFECTED BLANCA.  THIS
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SOON.    THE WIND SPEED IS IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN A VERY SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  GLOBAL MODELS
ALL INDICATE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW WITH
DIRECTIONS OF MOTION VARYING FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. 
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION PREVENTS ME FROM MAKING THIS THE LAST
ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 15.3N 106.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.2N 106.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.4N 107.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 15.6N 107.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC