Tropical Storm BLANCA

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TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003
 
AFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...NEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT BLANCA IS BARELY A TROPICAL
STORM BUT BECAUSE THERE WAS THERE WAS AN EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED
CENTER ON THE 0347Z TRMM PASSAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. EVERY SINGLE MODEL BUT CLIMATOLOGY WEAKENS
BLANCA IN THE SHORT TERM...PRIMARILY THE NCEP GFS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AND BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT IT COULD BE SOONER. THE WEAKENING WILL
LIKELY BE CAUSED BY SHEAR SINCE THE SSTS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM.

BLANCA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST. A WESTWARD
DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  IN ADDITION...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE.        
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 15.6N 105.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.6N 106.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.6N 107.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.8N 107.6W    25 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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