Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003
 
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT BY LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR IMAGES
THAT THERE WAS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE A FEW HOURS AGO.  THERE
MUST HAVE BEEN ONE SINCE QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATED SO.  A TIGHT
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF CONVECTION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE
LATEST AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION VIS IMAGES. THIS PATTERN COULD
BARELY SUPPORT A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS USING SOLELY
CONVENTIONAL DVORAK TECHNIQUE. NEVERTHERELESS...THE CYCLONE IS ON A
WEAKENING TREND OVER COLD WATER AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
24 HOURS OR SO.

THE SWIRL IS MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD TURN MORE
TO THE WEST AS IT SPINS DOWN GRADUALLY.  MOST OF THE MODELS
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOUR OR SO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 14.7N 134.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 136.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 147.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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