Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WELL WEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY.  DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.  THE GFS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND...IN COMBINATION
WITH COOLER SSTS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 3 TO 4
DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL KEEP ANDRES ON
A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  IN CONTRAST...THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS AND
THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THEN NORTH...BUT ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO
RESPOND TO A DEEP LAYER STEERING.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 13.2N 126.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.9N 129.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.1N 132.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N 134.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.3N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 14.5N 145.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 149.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  
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