Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ANDRES


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003

ANDRES IS STILL FIGHTING THE SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY
THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA AND A FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE. BASED ON
DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS HEADING FOR ANDRES. IN FACT...THE GFS IS NOW FORECASTING
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER ANDRES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE THE MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE.
ANDRES THEN HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR
PERIOD. THEREAFTER... REGARDLESS OF SHEAR... ANDRES SHOULD BE
APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

ANDRES IS RIGHT ON COURSE...MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE. A
GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED...THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.         
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 11.3N 117.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 123.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 132.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 140.0W    20 KT
 
 
NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC