Tropical Depression ONE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10
KT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE PERIOD.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE
NOGAPS MODEL TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z  9.6N 103.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z  9.7N 104.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W    35 KT
 
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