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Tropical Storm PETER


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2003
 
GLOBAL MODELS DID IT AGAIN...THEY SUCCESFULLY FORECAST THE GENESIS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER AS THEY DID WITH ODETTE. 

THE GALE CENTER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER...THE 16TH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2003
SEASON. OFFICIAL RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN DECEMBER
WAS 1887.
 
PETER ORIGINATED WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARD WARMER WATERS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS...MOSTLY BASED ON QUICKSCAT DATA AND
SATELLITE PRESENTATION. CURRENTLY...PETER IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.  PETER WILL
PROBABLY BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 24
HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 20.0N  37.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  36.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  34.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  32.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC