ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2003 GLOBAL MODELS DID IT AGAIN...THEY SUCCESFULLY FORECAST THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER AS THEY DID WITH ODETTE. THE GALE CENTER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER...THE 16TH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2003 SEASON. OFFICIAL RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN DECEMBER WAS 1887. PETER ORIGINATED WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARD WARMER WATERS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS...MOSTLY BASED ON QUICKSCAT DATA AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. CURRENTLY...PETER IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. PETER WILL PROBABLY BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 20.0N 37.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 36.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 34.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 32.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC