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Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
 
THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
AIR FORCE RECON AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS OF THE STORM  AND WARNINGS WILL BE LEFT UP OVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND QUIKSCAT WINDS..THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO
45 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THERE COULD BE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  RECENT INFRARED IMAGES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHOWING A
LARGE COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTING OVER HISPANIOLA.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING AS ODETTE MOVES BACK OVER
WATER AND MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST BASED ON THE 18Z GFS RUN NOW ON THE FSU WEBSITE SHOWS
ODETTE QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 18.3N  71.1W    45 KT...OVER LAND
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.9N  70.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N  66.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.8N  62.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 29.0N  57.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC