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Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB. HOWEVER 
THE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT
THE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ODETTE HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC. 

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 17.2N  71.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  71.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  68.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 25.5N  64.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.5N  58.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW.
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC