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Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...FORECASTER NAME...
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL-
ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN
ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO
3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE
CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND
WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER
FRONTAL LOW.
 
ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE
TO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN
1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE
HURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 14.2N  74.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N  73.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  72.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.0N  71.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC