ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003 ...FORECASTER NAME... A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL- ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW. ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE TO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN 1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.2N 74.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 73.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 72.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC