Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
ODETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDERGOING
PERIODIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS EVERY 3 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE
DATA EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
BAND WITH ABOUT A 75 PERCENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE FEATURE AND A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PLUS A
DATA T-NUMBER OF 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07. ODETTE CONTINUES TO DEFY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS..BY
MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MDOEL TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL...GFS...
AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ODETTE SHARPLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...AND MOVE THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE OR BARELY ACROSS WESTERN HAITI IN 30-36 HOURS.
THIS SEEMS RATHER EXTREME GIVEN THAT THERE IS MODERATE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURROUNDING THE UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS. IN CONTRAST...THE CANADIAN MODEL TAKES ODETTE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA WHILE THE UKMET...THE
FARTHEST RIGHT OF ALL THE NHC MODELS...TAKES ODETTE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ODETTE MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHIN A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE NHC MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED...LESS THAN 10 KT...THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH RAPID
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AFTER THAT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS
THE GUNA OR GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE
CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST TRACK.
 
ODETTE REMAINS UNDER LESS THAN 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH FAVORS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.
OF COURSE...THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW STRONG IS ODETTE
CURRENTLY. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RECON FINDS A STRONGER STORM
THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT IN 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
CURRENT IMPRESIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE FACT THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 29C BENEATH THE CYCLONE. AFTER ODETTE PASSES OVER THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA...THE 8000-10000 FT MOUNTAINS SHOULD REALLY DISRUPT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT THAT
EMERGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CATCH UP WITH ODETTE BY 60-72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AND ABSORB
THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 14.5N  74.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.6N  73.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N  72.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N  70.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.7N  65.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC