ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDERGOING PERIODIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS EVERY 3 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE BAND WITH ABOUT A 75 PERCENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE FEATURE AND A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PLUS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07. ODETTE CONTINUES TO DEFY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS..BY MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MDOEL TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL...GFS... AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ODETTE SHARPLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...AND MOVE THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OR BARELY ACROSS WESTERN HAITI IN 30-36 HOURS. THIS SEEMS RATHER EXTREME GIVEN THAT THERE IS MODERATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURROUNDING THE UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. IN CONTRAST...THE CANADIAN MODEL TAKES ODETTE STRAIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA WHILE THE UKMET...THE FARTHEST RIGHT OF ALL THE NHC MODELS...TAKES ODETTE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ODETTE MAY ALSO BE EXPERIENCING SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE NHC MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...LESS THAN 10 KT...THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH RAPID NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AFTER THAT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE GUNA OR GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST TRACK. ODETTE REMAINS UNDER LESS THAN 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH FAVORS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. OF COURSE...THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW STRONG IS ODETTE CURRENTLY. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RECON FINDS A STRONGER STORM THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT IN 24 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE FACT THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 29C BENEATH THE CYCLONE. AFTER ODETTE PASSES OVER THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA...THE 8000-10000 FT MOUNTAINS SHOULD REALLY DISRUPT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT THAT EMERGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP WITH ODETTE BY 60-72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AND ABSORB THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA... ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.5N 74.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.6N 73.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 72.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 20.5N 70.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.7N 65.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC