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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003
 
NICHOLAS IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHOSE TOPS ARE BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
NICHOLAS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30
KT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...SO IT IS PRESUMED
THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT NICHOLAS...SO WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 325/10.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A LARGE 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED INITIAL MOTION.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 21.1N  55.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  56.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 24.7N  56.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC