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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE OCT 21 2003

NICHOLAS STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO WEAKEN.  IN SPITE OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...THE CENTER REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 40 KT.  APPARENTLY THE SHEAR
IS STILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISRUPT THE SYSTEM.  GIVEN
THE STORM'S SURVIVAL SKILLS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO.  HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL BE
APPROACHING 50 KT AND...IF THAT VERIFIES...NICHOLAS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH...OR BE
ABSORBED BY...AN  EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  NICHOLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THIS HIGH.  THEN THE
FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH SHOULD CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 19.0N  52.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.7N  54.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.3N  54.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N  55.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  55.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  55.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC