Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2003
 
IF ANYTHING...NICHOLAS LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOOKING A LITTLE STRUNG OUT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SHOW AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED
FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AS
WELL. 

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEADING MAY BE 
STARTING TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NICHOLAS...BUT THIS RIDGE MAY SOON BE
ERODED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY SLOW AND NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WITH SUCH WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING CURRENTS IN A LARGELY DATA-VOID REGION...IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 
THE SIMPLE-PHYSICS MODELS...ALONG WITH THE UKMET...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND
NOGAPS FORECAST A MOSTLY NORTHWARD TRACK.  SURPRISINGLY...THE
SIMPLER MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THE BETTER JOB SO FAR...BUT WITH A
POSSIBLE RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BEGINNING THIS MAY BE ABOUT TO
CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOW THAN THERE WAS 24
HOURS AGO...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  NICHOLAS SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 72 HR SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND NOW CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. 
THE GFDL STILL MAKES NICHOLAS A HURRICANE BUT IT TOO IS TRENDING
DOWNWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 12.9N  45.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.8N  45.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.9N  46.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N  47.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N  48.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  49.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  50.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  51.0W    65 KT
 
 
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