Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
...HOWEVER THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...IN A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING PATTERN.  LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ AND WE WOULD LIKE IT TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED
AND/OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL
STORM.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION.  IF
THE SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGER RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM.  IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED....IT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE LESS SHEAR AND PROBABLY GET STRONGER.  IT IS OF INTEREST
TO NOTE THAT...SINCE 1900...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 7 HURRICANES TO
THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...I.E. IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. 

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WNW...285/9.  THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. 
THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER
THE EASTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL AND MOVE ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NOGAPS AND
GFDN...WHICH IS DERIVED FROM THE NOGAPS INITIAL FIELD...SHOW A
NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE MOST RECENT GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE TRACKS.  NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
CYCLONE'S NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE BLOCKED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 11.2N  42.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.7N  43.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N  44.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N  44.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.2N  45.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  46.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N  47.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N  47.5W    65 KT 
 
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