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Tropical Storm MINDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED CIRCULATION...
AT BEST.  DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS A MORE LINEAR...RATHER THAN CURVED
BAND...ORGANIZATION...RESEMBLING A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM 10Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT IN AN OPEN TROUGH...
HOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER CAN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CAPTURING SUCH A
WEAK AND SMALL CIRCULATION.  THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF A VERY SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...DISPLACED WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.  AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 18Z CENTER FIX...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
APPEARANCE OF MINDY THEY MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLOSING OFF THE
CIRCULATION.   BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO ILL-DEFINED...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MOVEMENT REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MINDY IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. PRIOR TO THE
PREDICTED DISSIPATION...THE CURRENT TPC/NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 25.8N  68.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  67.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N  62.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC