Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
FORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE CENTER.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED HIGHEST WINDS OF 41
KNOTS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND NOT MUCH NEAR THE CENTER.  WIND
REPORTS FROM GRAND TURK INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED VERY CLOSE
TO THAT ISLAND BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z BUT WINDS THERE REMAINED BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS A TIGHT LITTLE CIRCULATION EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE
CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETERIORATING.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE WHERE MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY WILL NOT
SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR TODAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 22.2N  71.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.8N  72.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.1N  71.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  70.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.6N  66.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 37.3N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 43.0N  51.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z 47.5N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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