Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MINDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT
22Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1002 MB...WITH 54
KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
THIS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 40 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SHOWS THE STRONG CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS DECAYED...SUGGESTING THAT MINDY HAS STOPPED
INTENSIFYING FOR THE MOMENT.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 40
KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL
DEFINED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  WATER VAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MINDY IS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BROAD AND CONFUSING DEEP
LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MINDY
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISPARITIES IN SPEED 
CAUSED BY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED.  MINDY IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR..WHICH
ALLOWS FOR THE STRENGTHENING IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  THE
MODELS ARE ISSUING MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER MINDY WILL DISSIPATE...
GET ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND KEEPS MINDY AS A
POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM FROM 72-120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 20.2N  69.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.6N  70.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.3N  71.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 25.2N  71.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  70.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0000Z 44.5N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC