Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT
22Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1002 MB...WITH 54
KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
THIS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 40 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SHOWS THE STRONG CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS DECAYED...SUGGESTING THAT MINDY HAS STOPPED
INTENSIFYING FOR THE MOMENT.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 40
KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL
DEFINED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  WATER VAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MINDY IS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BROAD AND CONFUSING DEEP
LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MINDY
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISPARITIES IN SPEED 
CAUSED BY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED.  MINDY IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR..WHICH
ALLOWS FOR THE STRENGTHENING IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  THE
MODELS ARE ISSUING MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER MINDY WILL DISSIPATE...
GET ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND KEEPS MINDY AS A
POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM FROM 72-120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 20.2N  69.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.6N  70.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.3N  71.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 25.2N  71.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  70.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0000Z 44.5N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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