ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT 22Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1002 MB...WITH 54 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SHOWS THE STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECAYED...SUGGESTING THAT MINDY HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING FOR THE MOMENT. THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 40 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. WATER VAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MINDY IS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BROAD AND CONFUSING DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MINDY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISPARITIES IN SPEED CAUSED BY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED. MINDY IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR..WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE STRENGTHENING IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES. THE MODELS ARE ISSUING MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER MINDY WILL DISSIPATE... GET ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND KEEPS MINDY AS A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM FROM 72-120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.2N 69.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.6N 70.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 23.3N 71.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 25.2N 71.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 70.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0000Z 44.5N 44.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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