Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LARRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
CONTINUITY IS USED IN THIS PACKAGE SINCE THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA UNTIL 1200 UTC. SATELLITE
IMAGES DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH LARRY. BUT BOTH MICROWAVE DATA AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ALVARADO
MEXICO SHOW A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN
KEPT AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURES THE WINDS LATER
THIS MORNING. I AM TEMPTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EITHER MAINTAINS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.

LARRY CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED WITH LITTLE MOTION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE LARRY
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.    

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BASICALLY LITTLE MOTION. IN FACT...THE GFS KEEPS
A RATHER STRONG CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING ITS
ENTIRE 384-HOUR RUN...YES...384-HOUR RUN.  BOTH THE UK MODEL AND
THE NOGAPS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE OVER LAND BUT MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS A
CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL
SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST EITHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY BRING MOIST AIR FROM THE
PACIFIC RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.4N  94.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.4N  94.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.5N  94.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  94.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC