Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE
POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF LARRY.  WHILE THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION...THE CENTER DEFINITION IS SO POOR THAT ANY RELOCATION
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. 
OVERALL...LARRY APPEARS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION...AS THE
CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
YESTERDAY.  

LARRY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO
THE EAST AND WEST...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RESEMBLE SPOKES ON A WHEEL...ANOTHER SIGN THAT LARRY WILL GO
NOWHERE FAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
KEEPING LARRY STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN
POSITION ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER.  AFTER 48 HR...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  ONE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HR MAY
FORCE LARRY SOUTHWARD.  IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
FRONT AND MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD.

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE...LARRY IS
DISORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE
FORECAST INTENSITY WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LESS INTENSE SHIPS AND MORE INTENSE GFDL.
 
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N  94.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  94.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  95.0W    60 KT
 
 
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