Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARRY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING HAS
DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MAIN CONVECTION
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BROAD CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  AN
ANTICYCLONE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LARRY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL FORECASTS LARRY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION
OF THE INNER CORE I AM NOT WILLING TO GO THAT FAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.  IF LARRY REMAINS STATIONARY FOR LONG THEN UPWELLING
COULD BECOME A FACTOR IN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. 

IF ANYTHING...THE CENTER MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE BIT WEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT I WILL KEEP THE CENTER STATIONARY TILL A MOTION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LARRY IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LARRY WILL EVER FEEL
ITS INFLUENCE. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT LARRY WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE THE CANADIAN
AND ETA MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. SHOULD LARRY BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT COULD GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY CURRENT
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LARRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  94.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N  95.0W    60 KT
 
 
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