Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
KATE CONTINUES TO TURN AND ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
350/9.  KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE
MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.  EXCEPT FOR THE
NOGAPS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES AFTER THAT.  THE
GFS TAKES KATE A LITTLE QUICKER INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ENDS UP
BEING FASTER THAN THE UKMET.  SINCE KATE ALREADY SEEMS TO BE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE
SPEED OF THE UKMET SOLUTION.  KATE COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND TO PRODUCE GALES THERE.
 
THE EYE OF KATE IS CLOSING UP AND OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT...AND SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT. BY 48 HOURS KATE SHOULD BE OVER
12C WATER AND BE EXTRATROPICAL. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
KATE WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND SO THE FORECAST
WINDS ARE ONLY SLOWLY LOWERED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 31.9N  56.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  56.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  56.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 47.5N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 60.0N  10.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC