Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
AFTER A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...LATEST
IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATE HAS REDEVELOPED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE EYE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS. KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER
WATER.

THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON THE TRACK. KATE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME
STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 72
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 30.6N  55.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 31.3N  56.6W    95 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.0N  57.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  56.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 42.0N  53.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 53.0N  39.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 60.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0600Z 60.0N   5.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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