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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

EARLY MORNING GOES-12 IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CENTER AND MOST 
OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH SOME
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER.  AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 KNOTS KEEPING THE
SYSTEM A DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BEYOND 96 HRS THE GFS TRACK SOLUTION MOVES
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH DETACHES
FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO THIS
UPPER LOW WITH A MORE NORTHWEST AND FINALLY WESTWARD MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK SLOWS BEYOND 96 HRS AND BY 120 HRS NUDGES MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WESTWARD TRACK. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WHICH CALLED FOR THE CYCLONE
TO STRENGTHEN DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION AS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 72 HRS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE THAT HAS
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 60 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION UNLESS THE SHEAR PATTERN RELAXES
BEYOND 96 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 20.4N  43.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N  44.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.9N  45.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 25.3N  45.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.8N  44.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 28.8N  42.7W    30 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 30.1N  40.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 31.8N  39.0W    40 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC