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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003
 
POSITION FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE CENTERS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE
NORTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES ALTOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS
STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND AWFA REMAIN AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW SUCH THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/13.  GENERAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
THUS FAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MOVING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  UW CIMSS
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING PRODUCTS ALSO CONCUR WITH THIS GENERAL
MOTION. IN THE MEANTIME THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE OF GFS AND UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE LAST RUN OF THE GFDL WAS
NOT USED IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE IT DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 12
HOURS.
 
FORECAST GUIDANCE INTENSITY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE
NEAR TERM AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE CASE.  WITHIN 72 HOURS...SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE BUT STILL SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 15.9N  40.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N  42.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.9N  44.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.3N  46.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 21.7N  47.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.1N  49.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 25.8N  48.3W    55 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 27.1N  46.8W    55 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC