Hurricane JUAN

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HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
THE GFDL MODEL HAD THE CORRECT IDEA ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS OUTSTANDING AND
STILL IMPROVING. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WELL-DEFINED AND ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE CORRESPONDING TO AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS COINCIDED WITH A
DECREASE IN THE SHEAR AND WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER WARM
WATERS. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE EYE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY. JUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COOLER WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
JUAN SHOULD BE CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

ANOTHER SURPRISE TODAY WAS THAT JUAN MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE
HURRICANE MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE TODAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS
FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE 
OVER NOVA SCOTIA. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 35.9N  63.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 38.0N  64.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  64.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 48.0N  63.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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