Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE
ILL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED.  THUS THE MAXIMUM WIND
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH....WHICH HAS BEEN CREATING
AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE PATTERN...WITH MORE UPPER-AIR
RIDGING OVER THE SYSTEM...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES JUST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGES.

CENTER FIXES ARE AS MUCH AS 125 N MI APART...SO THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 330/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFS TRACKS.  THE
NOGAPS MODEL WEAKENS THE CYCLONE...AND TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE WEST
THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
 
THE AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N  25.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.9N  26.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  27.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  28.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N  30.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 25.0N  32.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 28.0N  34.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  35.5W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC